Monday, January 10, 2005

AP Wire | 01/10/2005 | Tourism industry hopes tsunami impact will be minimal

AP Wire | 01/10/2005
BETH J. HARPAZ
Associated Press

NEW YORK - In the two weeks since the tsunami hit coastal Asia, Gate 1 Travel has sent about 50 Americans to Thailand on guided tours, with another 300 scheduled to depart in the next 90 days.

Only four people have cancelled.

"Cancellations have been minimal or non-existent," said Marty Seslow, marketing director for Gate 1, a tour operator based in Glenside, Pa. "Not only have there been no cancellations but people have been making new bookings in the past week. We've been pleasantly surprised."

Tourism officials are hoping other travelers respond to the tsunami the way most of Gate 1's customers did - by maintaining plans to visit the region.

Tourist arrivals in Bangkok's international airport plunged 27 percent in the days following the tsunami, but Tourism and Sports Minister Sontaya Kunplome said the figures were likely to bounce back. "I believe the fall of 27.4 percent was the bottom, as people were shocked from the recent event," he said. Tourism had been booming in Thailand prior to the tsunami - up 20 percent in 2004 compared to the previous year.

Hundreds of tourists were among more than 150,000 killed when a wall of water triggered by an earthquake swept through coastal Asia on Dec. 26.

As of Jan. 10, the dead included 37 Americans. Bob Whitley, president of the U.S. Tour Operators Association, said the United States experienced fewer casualties than some European countries because "the areas the tsunami hit are not areas Americans traditionally go to in Asia." Americans vacationing in Asia tend to prefer cultural sites and inland adventures over beaches, he added.

"You've got beaches in Hawaii, Cancun, the Caribbean and southern Florida much closer to home," he said. "Why go to the beach in Thailand if you can go to Cabo San Lucas or St. John? ... The U.S. packages that go to Southeast Asia, you're talking about Bangkok, the Taj Mahal - those are not the affected areas."

One beach resort that does attract Americans is Bali, Whitley said, but although Indonesia was the hardest-hit country, with more than 100,000 deaths, Bali was not in the tsunami's path.

Tourism officials hope the tsunami will not have a longterm or widespread impact on travel to the region. "People understand that the possibility of getting caught in something like this is very small," said Juergen Steinmetz, chairman of the International Council of Tourism Partners.

"It's not like SARS or avian flu, which are ongoing events," said Andrew Harper, who publishes a monthly newsletter about luxury travel called Andrew Harper's Hideaway Report. "I think most travelers realize this is one of those rare events that happen every 100 years. ... It was a terrible disaster but once it starts fading, I think travel is going to return to normal."

Geoffrey Lipman, president of the International Council of Tourism Partners and special adviser to the World Tourism Organization, said his organization is trying to "encourage people to focus on how tourism can help. For most of these countries, tourism is one of the principal exports. For countries like the Maldives and Sri Lanka, it's been a way to attack poverty."

He added: "It's very difficult to say to people how they should or shouldn't spend their leisure time. But if people feel they can make a contribution by continuing their travel, then they should do it."

Harper said he has received e-mails from hotels in Phuket "saying, 'The beach is fine, come on over. Clean-up is done. We weren't severely damaged.'"

Steinmetz, reached by phone in the beach resort of Pattaya, Thailand, agreed that the disaster should not dissuade travelers from visiting Asian beaches. "I'm in Pattaya and it's absolutely blooming here," he said. "It's like nothing ever happened. The beaches are nice, they're clean, the waters are calm. This is not expected to happen in our lifetime again, but I've talked to a lot of tourism agencies in the region that are unaffected - like Bali and Malaysia - and they fear that tourism might be going down because people don't understand the geography."

But Lipman cautioned that "anybody contemplating travel here really has to spend twice as much time checking out what it is they are going to find at the other end. ... If there's ever a moment when someone involved in a vacation needs to doublecheck with a travel agent and tour operator, this is the moment."

Sandi Hughes, vice president of AAA Travel, concurred. "We're telling everyone, if they've already booked, check with a travel agent to find out the status of the property they're staying at. And if they haven't yet booked, they might consider a vacation to the area. Tourism is such an important part of the economy."

For Second Consecutive Year...Las Vegas, Caribbean Cruising Rank as Top Destinations: Carlson Wagonlit Travel 2005 Travel Trends Survey

For Second Consecutive Year...Las Vegas, Caribbean Cruising Rank as Top Destinations: Carlson Wagonlit Travel 2005 Travel Trends Survey

Extremely Strong Demand for Hawaii, Mexico and Cruising of All Kinds


Authoritative Survey of 398 Carlson Wagonlit Travel Associate Agencies Also
Reveals Healthy Bookings, Longer Vacations, More Confidence Among Consumers

MINNEAPOLIS, Jan. 10 /PRNewswire/ -- Carlson Wagonlit Travel Associates
today announced the much-anticipated results of its 2005 Travel Trends Survey
-- the travel agency powerhouse's most comprehensive survey ever -- which
ranked Las Vegas as the number one domestic destination for the third
consecutive year, while Caribbean cruising was cited as the top international
"destination" for the second year running. The 2005 Travel Trends Survey was
conducted December 1-20, 2004 of 398 Carlson Wagonlit Travel Associates and
agents throughout the United States, roughly equivalent to one response per
every two locations.
"Last year's survey was among the first to point toward a dramatically
improved picture for our industry in terms of interest and subsequent
bookings, and this year's results point toward even more stability and greater
interest in traveling, both domestically and abroad," stated Roger E. Block,
CTC, Executive Vice President of the Carlson Wagonlit Travel Associate
Division. "While last year's survey showed 83% of our respondents saying
their bookings for 2004 were even or up over the same time in the previous
year, this year has seen that number increase significantly to 91%."
Perhaps even more significant, Block said, is the number of Carlson
Wagonlit Travel Associates who are entering 2005 optimistically. "When we
asked them what their personal outlook on their business was for 2005, over
88% characterized themselves as 'fairly optimistic' or 'very optimistic' while
nearly 9% more said they were neither optimistic nor pessimistic. That
compares with 85% who told us they were optimistic in 2004 and 11% who
expressed neither optimism nor pessimism. That's quite a harbinger for
success," Block explained.

Top Vacation Destinations: U.S. and International
When asked to forecast the five most popular U.S. destinations for 2004
based on their actual bookings to date, 82% of the respondents named Las
Vegas, securing the city's number-one ranking in the survey once again this
year. Caribbean cruising was the most popular international destination, named
by 83% of the Carlson Wagonlit Travel Associate experts.

Also noteworthy:
-- Hawaii fares considerably well in the overall rankings of most popular
domestic destinations, with Maui, Honolulu and Kauai each landing in
the top ten (at numbers 3,4 and 9, respectively), and a fourth
destination -- Kona -- reaching the top twenty for the first time, at
number 20. "Hawaii has truly enjoyed a remarkable renaissance among
our best customers seeking an exotic vacation that also provides the
peace-of-mind that comes with remaining within the United States,"
Block noted. "Hawaii now also ranks fifth among the top cruise
destinations that our travel professionals have booked for the New
Year."

-- Similarly, Mexico dominates the survey results among top international
destinations, with five vacation options -- Cancun, Riviera Maya,
Playa del Carmen, Mexico cruises and Cozumel placing in the top ten
(at numbers 2, 3, 6, 8 and 9 (tie), respectively). While Puerto
Vallarta drops to number 12, Cabo San Lucas/Los Cabos jumps to number
13 overall. "Mexico truly has it all, including sunny beaches with
resorts to match virtually every type of budget," Block stated. "Plus
the value of the dollar and its close proximity to the U.S. make for
an easy, international getaway."

-- Washington DC has made a substantial jump from number 18 to tie with
Fort Lauderdale at number 11; Denali National Park has jumped from
number 18 to number 14. Los Angeles has dropped out of top ten to
number 16 on the domestic list (Kauai replaced it).

-- London remains the top European destination, although it slips a notch
to number 7. Rome jumps into the top ten at number 9, tied with
Cozumel and Aruba (which makes its debut in the top ten). Paris slips
a notch to number 15. "The biggest trend in European vacations comes
in Tuscany, which makes its debut in our top twenty at number 16, tied
with Nassau," Block said. "This confirms the popularity for Tuscany
that we saw reflected in our fall trends survey. To those who have
loved this vibrant region of Italy for years, they're no doubt asking
what took America so long to discover it."

The following lists display the top ten domestic and international
destinations for 2005, compared to the results from the 2004 survey conducted
one year ago.*

Top 10 Domestic Destinations: 2005 Top 10 Domestic Destinations: 2004

1 - Las Vegas, NV 82% 1 - Las Vegas, NV 85%
2 - Orlando, FL 75% 2 - Orlando, FL 77%
3 - Maui, HI 56% 3 - Maui, HI 55%
4 - Honolulu, HI 53% 4 - Honolulu, HI 49%
5 - New York City, NY 33% 5 - Phoenix/Scottsdale, AZ 24%
6 - Phoenix/Scottsdale, AZ 21% 6 - New York City, NY 23%
7 - Anchorage, AK 16% 7 (tie) - Anchorage, AK 16%
8 - Fort Myers, FL 15% 7 (tie) - Fort Myers, FL 16%
9 - Kauai, HI 14% 9 - San Francisco, CA 14%
10 - San Francisco, CA 13% 10 - Los Angeles, CA 11%


Top 10 International Top 10 International
Destinations: 2005 Destinations: 2004

1 - Caribbean Cruising 83% 1 - Caribbean Cruising 77%
2 - Cancun, Mexico 70% 2 - Cancun, Mexico 71%
3 - Riviera Maya, Mexico 47% 3 - Riviera Maya, Mexico 35%
4 - Jamaica 34% 4 - Punta Cana, D. Republic 35%
5 - Punta Cana, D. Republic 33% 5 - Jamaica 34.5%
6 - Playa del Carmen, Mexico 28% 6 - London, England 28%
7 - London, England 20% 7 - Playa del Carmen, Mexico 27.5%
8 - Mexico Cruising 19% 8 - Puerto Vallarta, Mexico 20%
9 (tie) - Aruba 17% 9 - Mexico Cruising 19%
9 (tie) - Cozumel, Mexico 17% 10 - Cozumel, Mexico 16%
9 (tie) - Rome, Italy 17%


For the first time for 2005, Carlson Wagonlit Travel Associates were asked
to name the top cruise destinations they were already booking for the New
Year. The following lists display the top ten cruise destinations for 2005:

Top 10 Cruise Destinations: 2005

1 - Caribbean (Western) 39.2%
2 - Alaska 16.3%
3 - Caribbean (Eastern) 14.1%
4 - Caribbean (Southern) 9.5%
5 - Hawaii 4%
5 (tie) - Mexican Riviera 4%
7 - Europe (Mediterranean) 3.8%
8 - Panama Canal 2.3%
9 - Bermuda 1.5%
10 - Europe (Barge) 1%
10 (tie) - South America 1%
10 (tie) - U.S. Riverboat 1%


Business Outlook and Travel Trends
Carlson Wagonlit Travel's 2005 Travel Trends Survey asked respondents to
identify key 2005 travel trends and to forecast their outlook for business in
the year ahead. The results indicate good news for the travel industry:
consumer confidence in traveling further from home, longer vacations,
rebounding international travel, healthy 2005 bookings, and a sizeable include
in the amount travelers are spending per vacation. The results follow,
compared when possible to the 2004 survey*:

Comparing 2005 bookings so far to your 2004 bookings at this time last
year, which is true?
Our 2005 bookings are up: 67.6% (compared to 45% in last year's
survey)
Our 2005 bookings are even: 23.4% (compared to 38% in last year's
survey)
Our 2005 bookings are down: 9.1% (compared to 17% in last year's
survey)

What is your personal outlook on your business for 2005?
Very optimistic: 36.7% (compared to 31% in last year's
survey)
Fairly optimistic: 51.5% (compared to 54% in last year's
survey)
Neither optimistic nor
pessimistic: 8.8% (compared to 11% in last year's
survey)
Fairly pessimistic: 2.8% (compared to 4% in last year's survey)
Very pessimistic: 0.3% (compared to 1% in last year's survey)

Regarding 2005 bookings to date, what trends have you noticed?

2005 Survey 2004 Survey*
Average length of vacations booked: 6-7 days: 71.1% NA
Clients are feeling more confident about
traveling further from home: 60.2% NA
International travel seems to be on the rebound: 55.9% 54%
Cruising is becoming more popular: 53.1% 66%
Pent-up demand, customers just don't want to wait
any longer: 47.6% NA
Clients are spending more per vacation: 45.6% 32%
Mexico bookings are up over last year: 39% 58%
Customers more confident about safety: 35.2% NA
Renewed consumer confidence in economy: 28.6% NA
Europe bookings are up over last year: 28.5% 21%
Caribbean bookings are up over last year: 25.7% 37%
Customers less concerned about global conflicts: 21% NA
Average length of vacations booked: 4-5 days: 15.8% NA
Domestic bookings are up over last year: 12.8% 27%
Average length of vacations booked: 8-10 days: 12.3% NA
People continue to want to stay close to home: 8.6% 18%
Clients are spending less per vacation: 5.8% 23%


With Carlson Wagonlit Travel, your vacation experience begins with ours.
To find the Carlson Wagonlit Travel location nearest you call 1-800-CARLSON or
visit http://www.carlsontravel.com .
* Survey of 287 Carlson Wagonlit Travel agents taken Oct. 20-Nov. 19,
2003.

Carlson Travel Group, Inc. is a subsidiary of Minneapolis-based Carlson
Companies, Inc. Brands include: Carlson Wagonlit Travel, Cruise Holidays,
Results Travel, Carlson Leisure Travel Services and Carlson Destination
Marketing Services. In 2003, for the seventh consecutive year, the Carlson
Wagonlit Travel Associate program was named the top travel business franchise
by Entrepreneur's Franchise 500(R); Franchise Times ranked the program as the
3rd top franchise overall in 2004 for the fourth year in a row.